Australia's ELT sector recovered in 2023 but warns of losses from current policies

The average stay of 15.7 weeks was a reduction compared with 16.7 weeks in 2022 but was above typical pre-Covid levels – the average stay was 13 weeks in 2019 and 13.6 weeks in 2018.

The economic value of the sector also recovered to AUS$2.4 billion, a 70 per cent increase over AUS$1.4 billion in 2022 and eclipsing the 2019 value of AUS$2.38 billion.

Source markets: Colombia was again the largest source country for Australia’s ELICOS providers in 2023 with 30,941 students, an increase of 137 per cent compared with the previous year, and 114.5 per cent higher than 2019.

Next was Japan with 21,820 students, up 100 per cent over the previous year and slightly above 2019 levels, followed by China with 17,992 students, which was a 64 per cent increase compared with 2022, but still less than half of the Chinese numbers in 2019.

The top five was completed by Brazil with 14,931 students, up 55 per cent on the previous year, and Thailand, which rose by 11 per cent to 12,144 students.

Among the top ten source markets, the largest year-on-year growth came from Mongolia at 383 per cent (to 4,499 students), followed by sixth-placed Vietnam, which jumped by 185 per cent to 8,460 students.

Colombia was the largest growth market in absolute numbers with an additional 17,909 students last year, followed by Japan, China, Vietnam and Brazil. 

Visa type: In 2023, 73 per cent of students were on a student visa, which was a lower ratio than 78 per cent in 2022 and shows the sector edging back towards the 70 per cent level of 2019. Meanwhile, 15 per cent came on a visitor visa last year, six per cent had a working holiday visa, and six per cent had another visa type/no visa.

Queensland had the highest proportion of non-student-visa students in 2023 at 34 per cent, while Victoria had the lowest at 19 per cent.

Provider recovery: By institution type, VET-based ELICOS colleges had the highest proportion of English language students (49) – a slight reduction compared with 52 per cent in 2022 - followed by stand-alone ELICOS providers (34) and university-based English colleges (14).

English Australia highlighted a wide disparity in the recovery level of student numbers by different provider types. VET college providers exceeded 2019 student numbers by 88 per cent in 2023, while stand-alone ELICOS providers recovered to 79 per cent and university-based providers reached 65 per cent of 2019 volumes. Multi-sector providers, schools and private higher education-based English college had lower levels of recovery.

Recruitment channels: Agents accounted for 88 per cent of students enrolled in 2023, a slight increase compared with 86 per cent in the previous year.

Student type: There was a slight return of the junior segment in 2023, which accounted for six per cent of all students, an increased ratio compared with four per cent in 2022 but not yet a return to the 2019 share when nine per cent of students were under 18s. Six per cent of students came in groups, which was an increased ratio compared with three per cent in 2022.

States: New South Wales was the largest host state of ELICOS students with 64,141 students, an increase of 80 per cent over the previous year, followed by Queensland (43,220 students, +83 per cent) and Victoria (41,851, +64).

The largest year-on-year growth came from Western Australia at +108 per cent to 13,319 students and South Australia on +87 per cent to 6,378 students.

Sector lobbies against visa policies: Joy at the full recovery of the ELICOS sector in 2023 will be tempered by the sector’s frustration with visa refusals and government policies, which are likely to lead to a reduction in 2024.

English language providers, as well as other sector stakeholders, have complained of visa delays and refusals being at unprecedented levels in the first part of this year.

The number of ELICOS visas granted offshore in January-to-April 2024 was less than half of the same period in the previous year, and the approval rate was 74.8 per cent, the lowest in the comparable period in the 19-year Department of Home Affairs data set.

Approvals for Colombia, the largest ELICOS source market, and Vietnam, another top 10 country, have plummeted. 

The ELICOS sector has been critical of recently introduced government policies that it said could further damage the sector, including an end to visitors switching to student visas; which English Australia CEO Ian Aird wrote about in a StudyTravel Magazine guest article ; a 125 per cent increase in student visa fees; and an increase in financial requirements for a visa.

English Australia has also recently published its submission on the government’s Education Services for Overseas Students Amendment (Quality and Integrity) Bill 2024, which will give the Minister for Education powers to limit enrolments, pause applications for new providers, scrutinise cross-ownership of agents and schools, and provide more transparency on commissions and providers’ relationships with agencies, amongst other measures.

The association said in its submission that it does not endorse the Bill and called on the government to pause its progress, fully consult with the sector and conduct independent analysis on the impact of its provisions.

“English Australia urges government to recognise that the Bill as it stands represents a serious threat to the international education sector and the many vital contributions it makes to the Australian economy, to the 250,000+ people employed within the sector, to international students and domestic students, to the thousands of organisations that exist to serve the sector or are significantly better off because of the sector, and to the many local communities and economies that rely on the sector,” the association said.