Latin American markets strong but global ELT sector recovery mixed

The Global ELT Annual Report 2024 by industry research organisation Bonard Education examines full-year data on 2023 from eight ELT destinations (Australia, Canada, Ireland, Malta, New Zealand, South Africa, the UK and the USA), as well as current year visa and enrolment data, and was accompanied by a launch webinar with English Australia, English UK, EnglishUSA and Languages Canada / Langues Canada.

Destination recovery: The eight ELT destinations recovered to 78 per cent of student numbers in 2019 and 85 per cent of student weeks, the authors said.

As previously reported, Ireland was the only destination to surpass 2019 volumes of both students and student weeks in 2023, while Australia topped pre-pandemic student weeks and almost matched student numbers. Malta set a record of student weeks in 2023, while South Africa also came close to full recovery.

However, the recovery was more limited in Canada, the UK and the USA last year, which the authors attributed to a range of factors including political changes, the impact of Brexit, visa denials and delays, as well as a rise in local and transnational provision affecting demand. New Zealand remains behind the recovery curve due to its later reopening to international visitors.

Ivana Bartosik, International Education Director at BONARD, said the availability of work rights for ELT students in Australia, Malta and Ireland were a factor in their more advanced recovery.

Source market recovery: Colombia emerged as the largest source market for English language students in 2023 by weeks and was the only top five source market to surpass its 2019 volume of student weeks (+189 per cent).

Brazil was the second-largest market and recovered to 84 per cent of its 2019 numbers, while third-placed Japan reached 75 per cent according to Bonard.

Latin America more widely was a strong demand region in 2023 with Mexico exceeding 2019 volumes by 35 per cent to become the seventh-largest ELT source market, and Chile reached 156 per cent recovery to become the 14th-biggest sender.

Meanwhile, Ecuador quadrupled 2019 student weeks and Argentina almost doubled pre-pandemic volumes to both enter the top 20 for the first time.

In Asia, Vietnam (108 per cent recovery) and Thailand (107) surpassed 2019 levels, but South Korea remained well below, and former top source China only reached 35 per cent recovery last year, which can mostly be attributed to the country’s late reopening early last year. The authors said that early 2024 data suggests a further steady recovery and that the Chinese market could get back to 60 per cent this year.

Italy, the largest ELT market in Europe, reached 78 per cent of pre-pandemic student weeks in 2023, while Spain (89) and France (94) came closer to full recovery. However, Germany only remained steady with 2022 levels, and Switzerland decreased last year.

The top 10 markets accounted for 61 per cent of all student weeks in the eight ELT destinations in 2023, a decrease compared with 67 per cent in 2019.

2024 expectations: Prospects for the ELT sector in 2024 look more mixed, according to the authors and industry associations, with a decrease for the sector overall compared with the previous year anticipated.

Visa restrictions and regulations, particularly the introduction of caps in Canada and planned limits for Australia, have supressed demand, and for Australia plummeting visa grant dates for its largest source market Colombia have been particularly damaging.

Quarterly data from Languages Canada and English UK for the first two quarters of 2024 indicate a decline against the same period of last year. 

In a special ELT industry webinar to introduce the research, Jodie Gray, Chief Executive of English UK, and Gonzalo Peralta, Executive Director of Languages Canada, indicated that 2024 is likely to be similar, both citing the impact of government policies, particularly the way that caps on post-secondary study permits were implemented in the case of Canada.

The picture for Australia looks less positive, where student visa grants in the first six months of 2024 were less than half of the total in the same period of the previous year.

Ian Aird, CEO of English Australia, told the audience that the raft of changes, low visa grant rates and an increase in visa fees will continue to challenge the sector.

Daryl Bish, President of EnglishUSA, said that recovery had not been equal among different types of English language provider, and said visa denials had turned students away from the country. But he said the sector was confident of growth in juniors and short-term students.

The authors said that these developments in major destinations could drive demand to Ireland, Malta, New Zealand and South Africa, while Dubai and intra-regional destinations in Asia, such as the Philippines, also stand to benefit.

Nonetheless, there is still some promise in the junior market, which looks set to further recovery globally in 2024, they said.

Jodie suggested that the UK sector is unlikely to return to 2019 levels and that the sector has settled on a ‘new normal’.

Patrik Pavlacic, Chief Intelligence Officer at Bonard, argued, “2023 has set a new benchmark when it comes to reflecting the actual demand levels for ELT in traditional destinations. We are unlikely to see any substantial new growth for traditional ELT destinations, but we will see student flows diverting from certain destinations, such as Canada and Australia, to other countries.”

Gonzalo said it was important at this challenging time for the sector to keep demonstrating the positive benefits of hosting language students, to diversify and to keep good relations with agents and other stakeholders, and Jodie agreed that it was important to communicate to wider stakeholders the value of the industry.

In the report, the authors identify areas where providers and sectors can adapt, including a focus on product development and student services, developing lean and agile operations, effective communication with agents and students, continued advocacy, and addressing accommodation shortages to ensure business is not lost due to lack of capacity.